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My experiences on the betting exchanges have resulted in several long considered opinions. The only methods that guarantee long term success are techniques that involve trading, dutching and bookmaking.

Methods that employ pure back to win or pure lay to lose strategies can work, but are infinitely more strenuous to operate, and are overexposed to human fragility. Laying to lose, as i detailed in the previous article has proven no more effective than backing to win.

As I have outlined already, laying to lose simply reverses the experience of back to win in that you will experience a long series of small wins fragmented by the inevitable large loss. Naturally this is the direct opposite of back to win where you experience a long series of small losses, culminating in a large win.

A large proportion of new Betfair users are drawn to the "laying" concept ie the ability to profit from backing the loser of an event. Certainly in horse racing where there are so many runners and at times the outcome of a race is so unpredictable, long series of "winning" lays can be experienced.

This is simple logic. It stands to reason where in a field of 20 horses, only 1 can actually win the race. However the inevitable will occur and the nag that "can not win" will put in a sterling effort and go on to win the race.

Many new starters on Betfair may only be able to sustain a run of 3 to 5 losing lays before their entire capital pot runs dry. The hype goes something along these lines - out of 16 horses running in a given race, all you need to do is pick one that has absolutely no chance of winning.

Easy right? of course the real question that should be asked is: Can you pick the loser of 16 races 15 times on the trot allowing for the one race that you get wrong, because to make a realistic profit that is effectively what you are asking to happen.

The reason laying horses has become so popular is partly due to the frequency of wins you will experience. What punters are generally not prepared for is the extent of the loss that will be encountered when the lay bet fails and the horse wins the race, but by this time you will already be hooked by the frequency of small wins.

Systems that propose lay betting usually concentrate around the concept of "weak" favourites. From a financially viable viewpoint we normally discuss horses with a starting price below 4/1 but which the "lay system" will indicate have serious competition in the race for one reason or another.

The reasoning will be that the system has identified a flaw that the bookies have not priced in. As the horse has taken its position as the favourite in the race, its price will be far shorter than its real chance of winning the race and therefore it represents a "value" lay bet.

There is a great deal of poor quality racing in the UK and attempting to determine which horses to back or lay is extremely difficult. At certain times of year even the reasons that trainers and owners may be racing their horses may be invalid.

Horses often do not run to form and those which you would consider are more suited to the knackers yard occasionally go on to win races. The bottom line is that horses are, in the end of the day, simply animals.

All the form study in the world, can and frequently does have absolutely zero impact on the real outcome of a horse race. Of course we are working on percentages and you can improve your statistical chances of success by thorough informed investigation of the race fundamentals.

But, the facts remain undeniable that any horse that makes it to the stalls can on its day win a horse race, even if its victory is only due to every other horse in the race falling over! This is the stark reality of betting money on animals.

Where human beings are involved in a sports event there is a good deal of psychological preparation that takes place and allows professional sportsmen to perform to a reasonable standard even when they are feeling below par. It stands to reason that this obviously does not happen with animals. If an animal wakes up in a bad mood or below par then that is pretty much the end of the story.

Part of the beauty of laying is that you can make good progress by winning small, regular frequent amounts. Some useful daily information re: possible lay bets is published at:

http://www.parlaysuk.com

The data is generated using different computer programs that simulate various systems. The data is then analyzed for its potential effectiveness. The problems I have encountered however are that the predicted SP odds posted on the site are consistently unachievable.

This is also a very frequent tactic of the more blatant tipping sites whereby they post unattainable odds alongside their tipped horses in order that their overall result figures look much better than are actually achievable in reality.

In Part 2 we examine precisely why you shouldn't give your money to tipsters, and finally in Part 3 strategies that DO provide consistent long term profits from Betfair.

Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader, and a Betfair Trader and Advisor. For a free demonstration of scalping the Betfair racing markets, and advanced Betfair technical training => http://www.Betfair-Trade.com

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