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Those out there who believe that blackjack is not a skill game but rather a game of chance, I'd like to make an observation to convince you otherwise. Take the members of the Blackjack Hall of Fame, which counts amongst its ranks some of the most famous and profitable blackjack advantage players that have ever played the game. Here are individuals who made large sums of money playing the game of blackjack to the point where casinos had to devote considerable resources to identify and bar them from playing at their tables - at times through court action.
The aim of this article isn't to labor the playing feats of the world's best card counters, but it should be pointed out that apparently all of these guys made considerable amounts of cash by playing the game with a real edge over the house. I was looking through the current list of members just the other day and reading their biographies and there existed one undeniably common characteristic that they all possessed - highly analytic, highly numerate and highly intelligent minds. In fact, many of them were/are university educated in mathematics, economics or finance fields, usually at esteemed institutions and often to PHD level.
There is Peter Griffin holding a Masters Degree in mathematics from UC Davis (also the the grandson of famous mathematician Frank Loxley Griffin); Edwards Thorpe, MIT alma mater, UCLA PHD and UCI maths professor; Stanford Wong, PHD student in finance and alma mater at Stanforn; Lawrence Revere with a degree in pure mathematics at the University of Nebraska; James Grosjean, a University of Chicago Economics graduate. And then of course there are the members of the MIT Blackjack Team - recruited from MIT.
Is it just coincidence that the guys judged to be the best blackjack players in the world also happened to have a bent towards mathematics? I don't belive so. Did they randomly select blackjack as their casino game of choice over slots or keno? don't believe so. I am no genius and certainly not mathematically minded, but joining the dots on the above, three rather obvious points leap out at me. 1 - the best blackjack players in the world all seem to be very intelligent, very skilled individuals. Second, of all the games in the casino they could have played, they chose primarily to play blackjack, and third, by all reports they were able to profit from it.
Now before you rush out and learn to count cards and hit the blackjack tables, remember the game has changed quite a bit from the game commonly dealt in the 60s and 70s - thanks in no small part to some of the above players. Wising up to advantage play strategies, casinos have moved the goal posts and added multiple decks, changed the rules on whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, in some cases banned mid-shoe game entries and even, in some instances altered the payout for blackjack from 3:2 to 6:5.
But favorable rules are still out there and blackjack remains one of the very rare casino games where a skilled player can play with at worst a very small house edge, and maybe even a player edge if they are good enough.
Milton Shaw writes for numerous online gambling portals including Livedealer.org which provides live blackjack reviews. For a list of blackjack Hall of Fame blackjack players, visit Wiki's BHOF page.
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Filed under Play Craps by on Jan 22nd, 2010. Comment. 
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My experiences on the betting exchanges have resulted in several long considered opinions. The only methods that guarantee long term success are techniques that involve trading, dutching and bookmaking.
Methods that employ pure back to win or pure lay to lose strategies can work, but are infinitely more strenuous to operate, and are overexposed to human fragility. Laying to lose, as i detailed in the previous article has proven no more effective than backing to win.
As I have outlined already, laying to lose simply reverses the experience of back to win in that you will experience a long series of small wins fragmented by the inevitable large loss. Naturally this is the direct opposite of back to win where you experience a long series of small losses, culminating in a large win.
A large proportion of new Betfair users are drawn to the "laying" concept ie the ability to profit from backing the loser of an event. Certainly in horse racing where there are so many runners and at times the outcome of a race is so unpredictable, long series of "winning" lays can be experienced.
This is simple logic. It stands to reason where in a field of 20 horses, only 1 can actually win the race. However the inevitable will occur and the nag that "can not win" will put in a sterling effort and go on to win the race.
Many new starters on Betfair may only be able to sustain a run of 3 to 5 losing lays before their entire capital pot runs dry. The hype goes something along these lines - out of 16 horses running in a given race, all you need to do is pick one that has absolutely no chance of winning.
Easy right? of course the real question that should be asked is: Can you pick the loser of 16 races 15 times on the trot allowing for the one race that you get wrong, because to make a realistic profit that is effectively what you are asking to happen.
The reason laying horses has become so popular is partly due to the frequency of wins you will experience. What punters are generally not prepared for is the extent of the loss that will be encountered when the lay bet fails and the horse wins the race, but by this time you will already be hooked by the frequency of small wins.
Systems that propose lay betting usually concentrate around the concept of "weak" favourites. From a financially viable viewpoint we normally discuss horses with a starting price below 4/1 but which the "lay system" will indicate have serious competition in the race for one reason or another.
The reasoning will be that the system has identified a flaw that the bookies have not priced in. As the horse has taken its position as the favourite in the race, its price will be far shorter than its real chance of winning the race and therefore it represents a "value" lay bet.
There is a great deal of poor quality racing in the UK and attempting to determine which horses to back or lay is extremely difficult. At certain times of year even the reasons that trainers and owners may be racing their horses may be invalid.
Horses often do not run to form and those which you would consider are more suited to the knackers yard occasionally go on to win races. The bottom line is that horses are, in the end of the day, simply animals.
All the form study in the world, can and frequently does have absolutely zero impact on the real outcome of a horse race. Of course we are working on percentages and you can improve your statistical chances of success by thorough informed investigation of the race fundamentals.
But, the facts remain undeniable that any horse that makes it to the stalls can on its day win a horse race, even if its victory is only due to every other horse in the race falling over! This is the stark reality of betting money on animals.
Where human beings are involved in a sports event there is a good deal of psychological preparation that takes place and allows professional sportsmen to perform to a reasonable standard even when they are feeling below par. It stands to reason that this obviously does not happen with animals. If an animal wakes up in a bad mood or below par then that is pretty much the end of the story.
Part of the beauty of laying is that you can make good progress by winning small, regular frequent amounts. Some useful daily information re: possible lay bets is published at:
The data is generated using different computer programs that simulate various systems. The data is then analyzed for its potential effectiveness. The problems I have encountered however are that the predicted SP odds posted on the site are consistently unachievable.
This is also a very frequent tactic of the more blatant tipping sites whereby they post unattainable odds alongside their tipped horses in order that their overall result figures look much better than are actually achievable in reality.
In Part 2 we examine precisely why you shouldn't give your money to tipsters, and finally in Part 3 strategies that DO provide consistent long term profits from Betfair.
Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader, and a Betfair Trader and Advisor. For a free demonstration of scalping the Betfair racing markets, and advanced Betfair technical training => http://www.Betfair-Trade.com
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Filed under Play Craps by on Jan 22nd, 2010. Comment.